Rukman Senanayake has now decided to take the lead in unifying the party to prepare it for battle with the government and wean out possible Rajapakse moles in the system.

With the UNP deciding Monday to finally take the fight to the government on the political front, President Rajapakse is left with few allies to face the many demons he will have to deal with in the coming weeks.

The party took a unanimous decision this week to launch a new and fiery political campaign that will hit hard at corruption issues within the government and downgrade the party’s support to the peace process.

In the light of Rajapakse’s growing double-speak in local and international engagement, the UNP decided to seriously review its level of support to Rajapakse while roundly condemning the government’s attempt to continue to poach UNP members to its side and deny traditional opposition appointments to the chairmanship in the Committee On Public Enterprises (COPE) and the Public Accounts Committee (PAC).

Mahinda’s double-speak

At its group meeting on Monday, UNP MP Ravi Karunanayake was to raise this issue as a matter of vital importance. "We are fully supporting the government on the peace process and acting like a responsible opposition but Rajapakse is vilifying the party at every turn. The government would like to show the international community that they have garnered the support of the single largest party, the UNP, while locally Rajapakse continues to poach our members," he said.

Karunanayake also pointed out that the JVP while shouting about Oslo were now sitting in Oslo talking to the LTTE. "They are all hypocrites and political opportunists," he said.

The MP then raised the issue of appointments to the COPE and PAC which were posts traditionally given to the opposition.

Downgrade support

UNP Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe was to immediately reply, "Yes, we have sent our nominated names for the posts. If the government continues to poach our members and deny us our traditional posts in COPE and PAC we will have to downgrade our participation at the All Party Conference (APC)."

This would effectively mean the party would send a B or C team to the APC not merely to record its presence but also use it as a forum to highlight the double standards adopted by the President on the peace process.

The thinking of the party was that it should no longer be a case of individuals wanting to make a name for themselves or win the confidence of the President by participating at meetings such as the APC but use such opportunities to expose the government for adopting a Jekyll and Hyde approach to the burning issues confronting the country.

In fact, Kalutara District MP Sarath Ranawaka was to tell Wickremesinghe the likes of him should be sent for the next APC and he would then take the battle to the President in the presence of all delegates without fear or favour.

COPE

Meanwhile, the name that has gone up from the UNP leadership to takeover as COPE chairman is MP Ravi Karunanayake. The issue within the party is whether other members will now reciprocate and fight for Karunanayake’s appointment given that the firebrand MP has on many an occasion taken on his shoulders the battles of other UNP members such as Prof G.L. Peiris , Rajitha Senaratne and S.B. Dissanayake.

The issue is whether the members currently attending the APC will throw their weight behind Karunanayake as called for by the UNP Leader and agree to downgrade the party delegation unless the Kotte MP is appointed as COPE chairman or sacrifice him to further their own individual agendas.

Crossovers denied

Many UNP members were also distressed at media reports about crossovers. Gamini Jayawickrema Perera was to say that all the bad press about UNP pole vaulters would demoralise party members.

Mano Wijeratne countering government claims of massive crossovers said, "Who would cross over to the government when it is so bankrupt in its policies?" Wijeratne went on, "In fact there are many at the borderline awaiting the right time to come over to the UNP." The government is in disarray, he charged.

Following suit was Ranawaka who immediately got up to protest a report in a Sinhala weekly which is published on Friday that had listed his name as a crossover and denied the fact vehemently calling such reports and reporters fib agents. "Our members may have differences but we are not going to leave the party," he said.

Corruption

Next it was Bandula Gunawardena who brought up economic and financial issues observing that the climate was disastrous for investment and with security intensifying by the day the country’s economy was going down the drain.

Karunanayake then tabled a fact file on the Colombo-Katunayake Expressway stating he would submit a full report on it very soon. He was to say that the expressway which commenced in May 1999 with an estimated cost of Rs. 3.1 billion was now costing a colossal Rs. 36.4 billion.

Battle to government

Sagala Ratnayake brought up the issue of the Norochcholai Coal Power Project while Ranjith Aluvihare took up the issue of due process of law. "The government is exonerating crooks with impunity, with no proper legal proceedings," he observed and went on to name a minister from his district.

The consensus at the meeting was to take the battle to the government on issues of corruption with special emphasis on the President’s failure to take action.

New campaign

Wickremesinghe then said that issues of corruption in government must be foremost in this new campaign while he also told the UNP will take a decision on the electoral system.

Objections to Nivard

The UNP thinking was that they will not leave it to the JVP’s Anura Kumara Dissanayake to take up issues of corruption alone but will take them up themselves. It was also decided to take up the matter of Ajith Nivard Cabraal in the light of media reports of his involvement in Gold Quest – a company rendered illegal under the Banking Act of 2005 and currently under investigation by the Central Bank.

The UNP decided to oppose Cabraal’s appointment to the governorship of the Central Bank based on his conflict of interest and decided to call on the government to carry out a full and fair investigation into the issue.

The UNP Leader was told that the JVP itself was planning to take up the issue and it was important for the party to fire the first salvo before Anura Kumara Dissanayake does so and claims credit for it.

MR on backfoot

Thus, with the UNP now fired up and straining at the leash having already received a boost at the recently concluded mini poll, President Rajapakse has again been caught on the back foot.

The UNP has taken strength in its recent victory at the Colombo Municipal Council (CMC) elections and victories at other local authorities. It has also taken note of the Co-Chairs and the European Union statements last week, passing strictures on the government with regard to paramilitaries still operating in government-controlled areas and human rights violations in addition to the emphasis on the Oslo declaration calling for a federal solution.

Heads you win

This the UNP knows has put the President on the defensive having to decide between his alliance partners and the international community, practically placing him in a ‘heads you win, tails I lose’ situation.

But in taking the battle to the government, the UNP leadership knows it has to first iron out internal differences of opinion among its members and towards this end, an amity committee of party seniors was appointed to resolve issues in dispute among members.

Weaning out moles

Sensing the dangers in this unfolding scenario, the President has moved to stymie the operation of this committee by urging MPs who are being lured with cabinet office to block the functioning of this committee to keep the conflicts within the party on the boil.

However, the grandson of the father of the nation, Rukman Senanayake has now decided to take the lead in unifying the party to prepare it for battle with the government and wean out possible Rajapakse moles in the system.

Oslo

Meanwhile, tomorrow the government will sit across the table from the LTTE in Oslo and discuss limited issues relating to the operations of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM).

Back home in Colombo, Rajapakse is sitting on a powder keg. Only hours after the LTTE delegation left for Oslo, a claymore mine detonated in Welisara, Ragama.

Irrespective of whether there were casualties or not, the fact is that a claymore mine attack close to Colombo has now taken place, signaling the danger that no person is safe driving on the roads. And with international wire services picking up the story, it will undoubtedly further queer the pitch for tourism and foreign investment.

Imprisoned

Rajapakse is thus imprisoned by his own security concerns. The situation, considering the fear psychosis that has gripped the heart of the city as more army barricades spring up, can only get more intense. With security becoming increasingly an issue investors will now be driven away with some large investors already disillusioned by government procedures and attitude to investment.

Rajapakse, the quintessential PR man of the masses, is however a man ill accustomed to formality and legal responsibility. He has proved to have scant respect for bona fide agreements – be they political, financial or administrative.

Already his agreements with the JVP and JHU have not been adhered to. As Finance Minister he has reneged on G-to-G agreements such as the Lanka Indian Oil Company issue where the government declined payment of subsidies despite an agreement to the contrary.

Poaching from the UNP

In this overall context when the President has to cultivate friends and allies, the first mistake Rajapakse made with regard to the UNP was to threaten to poach on its territory.

Rajapakse must first realise that the UNP members are merely representatives of a support base not the support base itself. Thus, picking out a few disgruntled or indeed impatient and unscrupulous UNPers will not impact positively on his populist image.

The international ban

At the same time the international dimension is also giving the President more headaches. As much as the government has been pushing for international bans on the LTTE, it will very soon have to deal with some very thorny issues on Karuna and other armed groups reportedly operating in government-controlled areas.

Karuna ban

This newspaper group has already exclusively reported that the European Union will very soon ban the Karuna group. Such a ban would surely have an impact on the government and its relationship with the international community. Top diplomatic sources were to tell this column that the international community will target all terror groups, not only the LTTE.

In the event of a Karuna ban, how will Rajapakse and his government deal with the situation? Is Karuna to be disarmed? Can he be disarmed? From where does the Karuna group obtain its supply of arms? Indeed Rajapakse is a President put on notice by the international community.

JVP Leader Somawansa Amarasinghe told the media last week that the banning of the LTTE was merely the start of a larger plan by the international community to trap the government to a position and he could well be correct. In fact The Sunday Leader political columnist commented as far back as May 21 that when the EU bans the LTTE, they would call on the government to then deliver on the paramilitaries and federalism.

Indeed the President cannot now extricate himself from the walls closing in around him and he is pulled further into the trap by extremists urging him to wage war with assurances of victory. The Co-Chairs’ statement while condemning the LTTE has called upon the government not only to commit itself to a federal solution under the Oslo Communiqué but also to address the legitimate grievances of the Tamils.

They have also called on Rajapakse to prevent groups based in its territory from carrying out violence and acts of terrorism with a warning that failure to rein in such groups including Karuna and violent elements of the EPDP will result in a loss of international support.

The EU statement was just as hard hitting. The EU also refers the government to the Oslo Communiqué and calls for a peaceful, negotiated settlement. It has further said it will keep the situation in Sri Lanka under active review taking account of the activities of all parties to the conflict.

It will "remain ready to adopt further measures as and when they may be warranted by changing circumstances," the EU warned all parties. The reference to ‘all parties’ cannot be lost on the government.

This is one issue the UNP failed to capitalise on at the APC last week by not asking for a categorical statement from the President on his commitment to the agreements reached between 2002 to date but that could change if hard-nosed politicians are sent for the next session.

Life is about to get that much harder for Mahendra Percy Rajapakse and it will take all his cunning and political guile to get out of the hole he finds himself in. -The Morning Leader  By Sonali Samarasinghe